The room is so that there is a single table in the center surrounded by chairs along with a few chairs randomly placed against the wall. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. Making choices in a way that justifies past, flawed choices Example: Bankers who originate problem loans keep advancing more funds to the debtors, to protect their earlier decisions. Youd better not let that conversation be the clincher, because youve probably just fallen victim to the confirming-evidence bias. Try these techniques: Imagine that youre the president of a successful midsized U.S. manufacturer considering whether to call off a planned plant expansion. Once you become aware of the status-quo trap, you can use these techniques to lessen its pull: Another of our deep-seated biases is to make choices in a way that justifies past choices, even when the past choices no longer seem valid. Favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation Example: A key merger stumbles because the acquiring company avoids imposing a new management structure on the acquired company. As a result, they offer larger settlements than are actually warranted. One report concluded that the death penalty was effective; the other concluded it was not. Whats the strongest reason to do something else? Mostly from distortions and biasesa whole series of mental flawsthat sabotage our reasoning. The sunk-cost bias shows up with disturbing regularity in banking, where it can have particularly dire consequences. The movie has validated the following public management concepts: 1. The market-planning department, responsible for the decision, asked other departments to supply forecasts of key variables such as anticipated sales, dealer inventories, competitor actions, and costs. A., & Robinson, R. B. While managers continually make such estimates and forecasts, they rarely get clear feedback about their accuracy. The movie "Thirteen Days" is a movie about a series of discussion President of the United States of America goes through to resolve its political issues with Soviet Union. When comparing alternatives, always evaluate them in terms of the future as well as the present. 2. Once informed as to what their duties are, the two alternate jurors are dismissed and the remaining twelve men are shown into a small conference room. The owner of a local marine-salvage company gives you two options, both of which will cost the same: Plan A: This plan will save the cargo of one of the three barges, worth $200,000. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J. Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. The decision-making process can be broken down into four main phases- Framing: Structuring the question. Decision makers display a strong bias toward alternatives that perpetuate the status quo. Thirteen days is a historical account of the Cuban Missile Crisis. 10-25). In this course taught by leadership expert Michael Veltri, he shares his proven tips to help you avoid falling into these traps. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., 12 Angry Men (1957) is one of the most acclaimed feature films of all time. In October of 1962 a pressing matter arose during John F. Kennedys presidential term. This trap comes from our innate tendency when faced with loss to have strong emotions, which outweigh the positive emotions associated with gain. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/Irwin., Pearce, J.A., II, & Robinson, R.B. The soviet understands only one language- Action. Remember that the desirability of the status quo will change over time. Highly complex and important decisions are the most prone to distortion because they tend to involve the most assumptions, the most estimates, and the most inputs from the most people. This approach, while it may lead to a reasonably accurate estimate, tends to give too much weight to past events and not enough weight to other factors. Your analysis paper will be based on the decision making processes portrayed (or missing) in the film "Thirteen Days," a film that portrays the inner-circle discussions and decision-making processes of the Kennedy administration during and regarding the Cuban missile crisis. Why? We tend to subconsciously decide what to do before figuring out why we want to do it. Course Hero uses AI to attempt to automatically extract content from documents to surface to you and others so you can study better, e.g., in search results, to enrich docs, and more. This practice lead to a lot of decisions and some of those incidents are mentioned below. BEST OF HBR 1998 The Hidden Traps in Decision Making by John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa Before deciding on a course of action, prudent change for each version. The confirming-evidence bias not only affects where we go to collect evidence but also how we interpret the evidence we do receive, leading us to give too much weight to supporting information and too little to conflicting information. An example of such work is Bhat et al., in which a team of psychiatrists and economists followed up on psychotherapy clinical trials in India and deployed the tools of behavioral economics and psychiatry to study long-run effects of psychotherapy on mental health, economic well-being, and decision-making . Many experiments have shown the magnetic attraction of the status quo. It has been over Read more, Ashish Dhakal l Copyright Protected l 2020. This simple mental shortcut helps us to make the continuous stream of distance judgments required to navigate the world. All the people in the meetings presented their views whenever they had a view. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. Plan B: This plan has a one-third probability of saving the cargo on all three barges, worth $600,000, but has a two-thirds probability of saving nothing. Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Respects only one word-Force. She, of course, says to cancel. The first automobiles, revealingly called horseless carriages, looked very much like the buggies they replaced. We cannot always eliminate them, but we can learn to anticipate themand mitigate their effects. We make a hasty decision, and that decision establishes a new status quo. Compare and contrast different decision-making models. Think of the implications for business decisions, in which major initiatives and investments often hinge on ranges of estimates. In addition to monitor and disseminator roles, the movie also showed how Robert McNamara, The USA Secretary of Defence, act as JFKs spokesperson in Pentagon, making sure that no action was taken without JFKs approval. The source of the status-quo trap lies deep within our psyches, in our desire to protect our egos from damage. She and her team have been diligently gathering information for weeks. Is the population of Turkey greater than 35 million? Linda was also concerned that her teams discussions often seemed to be about the pros and cons she had already articulated, and she wondered if there were angles they might be missing as they did their analysis. Formal decision making process involves six fully-integrated steps; (1) definition of problem, (2) identification of criteria, (3) collection of data, (4) evaluation of alternatives, (5). There were instances of this kind of Trap in the movie. Ask a respected colleague to argue your potential decision. Thirteen Days Movie Analysis Sep. 09, 2012 6 likes 24,582 views Download Now Download to read offline Entertainment & Humor Technology An analysis Dann Sal Deli Follow Advertisement Recommended 13 Days In October 1962 Timp79 3.7k views 18 slides Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962 Erika Sutherland 27.4k views 18 slides 5. cuban missile crisis This preview shows page 1 - 2 out of 3 pages. Dissent and debate was an aspect of almost all meetings organized in the movie. Decision researchers have documented two types of frames that distort decision making with particular frequency: In a study patterned after a classic experiment by decision researchers Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, one of us posed the following problem to a group of insurance professionals: You are a marine property adjuster charged with minimizing the loss of cargo on three insured barges that sank yesterday off the coast of Alaska. This movie is about The Cuban Missile Crisis which also known as The October Crisis in Cuba and the Caribbean Crisis in USSR. Ask if the status quo really serves your objectives. Test estimates over a reasonable range to assess their impact. Executives who attempt to familiarize themselves with these traps and the diverse forms they take will be better able to ensure that the decisions they make are sound and that the recommendations proposed by subordinates or associates are reliable. Plus she had another concern that if they couldnt get to a clear decision, theyd default to recommending to stick with the legacy less-than-optimum platform. This paper will explain the transformational leadership approach by discussing its strengths, weaknesses, and steps for application., The case is one in which an 18 year old is charged with murder in the first degree for the death of his father, by way of stabbing him. Not surprisingly, we naturally look for reasons to do nothing. JFK told Kenny to tell the Press Secretary, Pierre Salinger, the truth about the crisis issue). Over the years, weve posed those questions to many groups of people. Could you be falling into one of these traps and not even know it? Participate in our complimentary Decision Diagnostic, which will evaluate a specific decision against these 6 common traps and provide you withtips on how to overcome them. It leads us to place undue importance on potential losses. In fact, anything that distorts your ability to recall events in a balanced way will distort your probability assessments. Perception of Fairness (Reasonably accepts or reject). And the recallability trap prompts us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. Always check to see whether you are examining all the evidence with equal rigor. Dont cultivate a failure-fearing culture that leads employees to perpetuate their mistakes. The first frame, with its reference point of zero, emphasizes incremental gains and losses, and the thought of losing triggers a conservative response in many peoples minds. decision making traps DismissTry Ask an Expert Ask an Expert Sign inRegister Sign inRegister Home Ask an ExpertNew My Library Courses You don't have any courses yet. Gathering Intelligence. The different frames established different status quos, and, not surprisingly, most consumers defaulted to the status quo. But the two states framed the choice in very different ways: in New Jersey, you automatically got the limited right to sue unless you specified otherwise; in Pennsylvania, you got the full right to sue unless you specified otherwise. Anchoring: The United States government faces in the first frames of the film a harsh and difficult decision, Soviet nuclear missiles have been detected in Cuban territory Strategic Decision Making and Leadership Principles in the Movie "Thirteen Days" Introduction The movie presents a situation where decisions (with long term consequences) need to be made. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. Firstly, if a problem or decision is framed wrongly, the end result will be wrong, too. Thousand Oaks, California, U.S.A., In the investigation of the various characteristics and styles of leadership the emphasis of the style approach is the focus on the actions and behavioral characteristics of the leader. They attack Berlin. As these values align with management, greater, References: Northouse, Peter G. (2010), Leadership, theory and practice, fifth edition. 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